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Argentina's 2026/27 wheat crop shows favorable development with a preliminary harvest estimate of 23 million tons, despite localized Fusarium and hail issues. Chicago wheat prices have fallen from US$285/t to US$220/t on hopes for Russia-Ukraine talks to restore normal commercial flows, and local harvest prices are down US$15–20/t.
Brazil's expected poor wheat harvest of about 5.7 million tons is forecast to drive imports of roughly 8 million tons, mainly from Argentina.
Brazilian import demand is supporting Argentine wheat prices and forward premiums, which provides a floor even as global benchmarks weaken. Any resumption of Black Sea flows would add supply and pressure prices further.
insights.tridge.comNov 14, 2026Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
