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Conab cut Brazil's 2026 wheat production forecast by 8.2% to 5.26 million tonnes, citing reduced area and excessive El Niño-linked rainfall that damaged yields and milling quality. It raised its import forecast to 8.94 million tonnes and lowered ending stocks to 436,500 tonnes.
A sharp output drop and higher imports tighten Brazil's domestic wheat supply and increase demand on world exporters, supporting wheat prices. The damaged quality also shifts more crop into feed-grade wheat.
agriinsite.comUkr Agro ConsultNov 14, 2026After 772 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
