At a China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation analysis meeting, industry experts and scholars called for scrapping export tariffs on fertilizers, including urea. They cited rising costs from the removal of preferential policies, restored VAT and higher gas and electricity prices, while export volumes rose but export prices kept falling in the first three quarters.
China is a major global exporter of urea and phosphates, so any removal of export tariffs would add supply to world fertilizer markets and could weigh on urea and DAP prices, while feed producers would benefit from lower input costs over time.
After 34 past bearish policy events, Urea moved a median -0.8% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -3.3% to +1.8%), and -4.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.