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Oil futures posted their largest weekly gain in more than a year, and options activity was even stronger. Traders were positioning for a possible sharp price spike as Mideast tensions escalated.
Heavy bullish speculation in futures and options amplifies price swings and signals expectations of higher energy costs ahead.
bloomberg.comAlex LongleyOct 6, 2024After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Record bullish options and futures positioning amplified the weekly rally as traders priced a possible spike.
