Fresh US export sales lift soybeans and corn, and template feed costs rise about 1% on the week after a 5% four-week slide

Friday brought new USDA flash sales: 303,800 t of corn to Mexico, plus soybeans to China (134,000 t) and Vietnam (120,000 t). Both markets firmed, and soybean meal and corn together pushed template feed costs up for the first week in a while. Corn remains near the bottom third of its 52-week range, while most alternative proteins sit at or near 52-week highs.

Grains

Corn rose 0.4% to $204.30/t on the Mexico sale and sits at 29% of its 52-week range. Export commitments are still only 33% of USDA's target against a 44% five-year average, which caps upside. Argentine FOB Up River corn at $212/t for January trades at a discount to US Gulf and Brazil, and Argentina has shipped a record 101 Mt of grains and byproducts so far this year, so competition stays heavy. With prices low in the range and the WASDE stock cut supportive, extending corn coverage in steps still looks reasonable. SRW wheat is at 80% of its range despite funds holding a large net short.

Soy and protein meals

Soybeans gained 0.9% to $454.87/t on the new export sales, and US bean commitments are running ahead of pace at 67% against a 57% average. China's October soybean imports fell to 7.35 Mt, the lowest for that month since 2023, so the China buying is worth watching rather than chasing. Soybean meal at $436.60/t sits at 72% of its range, while meal export commitments lag at 33% against 41%. Canola, sunflower, cottonseed, corn gluten and feather meal are all at 95–100% of their ranges. Meat and bone meal at 16% of its range and blood meal (down 3.5% this week) stand out as the relative-value protein options.

Fats, energy and freight

Soybean oil sits at 84% of its range even though WASDE cut its price projection to 68¢/lb. Palm oil fell 6.9% over five days on record Malaysian stocks, and choice white grease is at only 26% of its range, so it looks like the cheaper fat. Crude posted a second weekly loss, with WTI at $88.56 and Brent at $95.84, as the IEA flagged a fourth-quarter surplus. Diesel is still up 70.7% year on year. Ocean grain freight is at its 52-week high of $53.75/t, with BIMCO citing Hormuz and Black Sea risks, while barge freight eased 6.5%.

Livestock and disease

Lean hogs bounced 5.1% but remain at 7% of their range, with managed money at a record net short. China's breeding sow herd fell below its 37.5 million regulatory baseline. H5N1 was confirmed at a breeder duck farm in South Korea and a poultry farm in Tamil Nadu. Eggs rose 5.7% to 73¢/doz, and Class III milk slipped 2.3% to $17.30/cwt.

Feed cost

All template formulas rose this week, about 0.6–1.3%, after falling roughly 4–6% over four weeks. Tilapia grow-out (+1.3%) moved most, followed by broiler starter, turkey starter and swine nursery (+1.1% each). For broiler grower, now $277/t, soybean meal added $1.54/t and corn $1.07/t, and the mix stayed unchanged. These are least-cost template formulas, not any mill's actual cost.