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An Oklahoma State University analyst notes that forward contracts for June/July 2021 delivery of wheat were around $6 a bushel in mid-March, down from $6.51 in February but well above $4.25 a year earlier. Possible upside drivers include lower Plains production, reduced Russia/Ukraine crops, and weaker world output.
Freeze damage and the spring weather outlook for the hard red winter crop are being watched.
Harvest-delivery price expectations near $6 reflect firm HRW supply concerns that keep wheat costs elevated for feed users. A weather-driven crop cut would support prices, while a benign season would keep pressure on values.
farmprogress.comKim Anderson2021年3月18日在过去 322 次看涨的天气事件之后，小麦(HRW) 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 -0.1%（49% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -2.5% 至 +3.2%），20 个交易日内为 +1.0%。
在过去 1,072 次看涨的天气事件之后，小麦(SRW) 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +0.2%（55% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -1.4% 至 +2.3%），20 个交易日内为 +0.3%。
各商品基准价相对事件前最后收盘价的变动。历史数据汇总同类过往事件；仅描述已发生的情况，不代表未来走势。不构成投资建议。
