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USDA's April 20 crop progress report rated 30% of the US winter wheat crop good to excellent, down from 34% the prior week and 45% two weeks earlier. Analysts say rain is needed soon, and tensions between the US and Iran are also affecting the wheat market.
Soft white wheat traded at $6.15 a bushel in Portland.
Falling crop ratings in the Southern Plains point to smaller hard red winter wheat output, which supports prices. Analysts note ample carry-in stocks limit the upside unless losses are large.
capitalpress.comMatthew Weaver2026年4月22日在过去 322 次看涨的天气事件之后，小麦(HRW) 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 -0.1%（49% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -2.5% 至 +3.2%），20 个交易日内为 +1.0%。
在过去 1,072 次看涨的天气事件之后，小麦(SRW) 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +0.2%（55% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -1.4% 至 +2.3%），20 个交易日内为 +0.3%。
各商品基准价相对事件前最后收盘价的变动。历史数据汇总同类过往事件；仅描述已发生的情况，不代表未来走势。不构成投资建议。
Crop ratings dropping to 30% G/E and the need for rain, plus US-Iran tensions, raised supply risk and risk premium.
