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Kpler analysts say Russia's July 8 diesel export ban, scheduled to run until July 31, will not cause a large balance shift because volumes were already curtailed. The ban arrives as the US-Iran ceasefire has collapsed and Strait of Hormuz tensions have re-escalated.
Brazil is expected to draw more diesel from the US, as it did during the 2023 ban.
Expected substitution by Brazil toward US Gulf Coast diesel would tighten US supply and support prices there. Renewed Hormuz disruption adds upward pressure on crude and refined product costs.
kpler.comDavid Tonyan2026年7月9日在过去 90 次看涨的政策事件之后，ULSD / 柴油 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +1.4%（66% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -1.9% 至 +4.1%），20 个交易日内为 +0.1%。
在过去 442 次看涨的政策事件之后，原油(Brent) 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +1.4%（60% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -2.0% 至 +4.9%），20 个交易日内为 +2.1%。
各商品基准价相对事件前最后收盘价的变动。历史数据汇总同类过往事件；仅描述已发生的情况，不代表未来走势。不构成投资建议。
