Corn, Wheat, Soybeans Fall as Dollar Hits Year High | Nov 12, 2026
· 7:27 · AI-generated voice presenting Feedsoft research
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A year-high dollar and a seventeen-month-low Brazilian real squeezed US grain competitiveness from both sides, outweighing a bullish WASDE, higher oil and El Niño risk for now.
STORIES IN THIS EPISODE
- Oil gains over $2 on attacks on Saudi energy sites, Strait of Hormuz disruptions
- Will El Niño cause more damage in 2026? NOAA reinforces historic phenomenon, the strongest since 1950
- The US Dollar just hit a 19-month high — and the Fed isn't done
- Dollar closes at R$5.65, highest since June 2025; Ibovespa falls
- Diesel Prices Drive Up Trucking And Rail Costs
- USDA WASDE report
- Dollar Rallies and Gold Slumps on the Prospects of Tighter Fed Policy
- Dollar surges on external markets and fiscal plan to R$5.65, highest in 17 months
- Dollar rises to R$5.65, highest in 17 months, on disappointment over fiscal adjustment
- USDA Grain Transportation Report: Record Rail Fuel Surcharges, Port Fee Suspension - News and Statistics - IndexBox
- Missouri River barge season ends Nov. 15 amid drought | US Farm News
- Shrinking Inland Barge Fleet, Rising Replacement Costs Could Strain U.S. Grain Exports - CropLife
- The main reason for the drop in Russian grain exports is named
- USDA has lowered its forecast for Ukrainian wheat exports to 11.5 million metric tons
- Rain deficit, reduced fertiliser use due to West Asia conflict drive up price of rice
TRANSCRIPT
Cold open · 0:00
Attacks hit Saudi energy sites, Brent jumped 3.2%, and El Niño warnings kept piling up. So why did soft red winter wheat fall 2.8%? Check the currency board: the dollar is at its highest in a year, and the Brazilian real is at its weakest since June last year. Today: what a squeeze from both sides means for US export demand, and for your feed bill.
Intro · 0:32
Hello, and welcome to Feedsoft Market Signals, your daily read on agricultural and commodity markets, brought to you by Feedsoft dot A-I. I'm your AI host, and it's Thursday, November twelfth. Let's see what moved today.
The close · 0:53
Currency down, energy up: that pairing likely set the tone today. The dollar is at its highest in a year, a headwind for US exports. Corn settled at $4.42/bu, and diesel at $4.29/gal keeps moving grain expensive. Soybean meal dropped 2.0%, a real test of the meal rally we flagged last time. Friday's positioning data should show whether the funds stood their ground.
The currency squeeze on US grain · 1:21
The dollar index climbed again on Thursday and now sits at its highest in a year. Hawkish talk from several Fed presidents pushed it up. Futures markets are pricing further rate hikes. Meanwhile, in Brazil, the real slid to its weakest since June last year. Reports tie that to disappointment over the government's fiscal plan, plus rising bets on US rate hikes. Here's the puzzle. Tuesday's WASDE put US soybean and corn ending stocks below trade estimates, a bullish surprise. Oil spiked and El Niño risk is building, yet corn, wheat, soybeans and meal all settled lower. So how does a currency beat a balance sheet? A strong dollar makes US grain pricier for foreign buyers. A weak real makes Brazilian beans, corn and meal cheaper in dollar terms. So US grain gets squeezed from both sides. Is it showing up in demand? For corn, it seems so. Corn export sales cover 30% of USDA's forecast. Normally by now it's 42%. Soybean commitments, by contrast, are running ahead of their usual pace. That points to corn and meal as the places where the currency pressure bites hardest. One more detail from Brazil: exporters appeared to be holding back on converting their dollar earnings. If the real stays weak, that pent-up selling could reach the world market later in the season. For feed buyers, this could look more like a buying window than a turn in the trend. The tighter supply story likely hasn't gone away; it seems to be muffled for now. Bottom line: right now the dollar, not the balance sheet, seems to be setting grain prices.