Shrinking Inland Barge Fleet, Rising Replacement Costs Could Strain U.S. Grain Exports

After 297 past bearish logistics events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.8%), and +0.7% over 20.

• Sep 30, 2022Low River Levels, Soaring Barge Freight Curb U.S. Grain Exports-3.7%
• Sep 10, 2026Soybean Shipping Costs Rise for US Exporters | Feed & Grain+0.3%
• Jan 29, 2026Low Water on U.S. Rivers Disrupts Grain Exports, Raising Costs for Ag Supply Chains - Agrolatam+1.6%
• Oct 22, 2026Rising Ocean Freight Raises Costs for U.S. Grain - RFD-TV-2.3%
• Dec 5, 2017Wooden Dams And River Jams Strain US Grain Exports-1.6%

After 359 past bearish logistics events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.5%), and -0.5% over 20.

• Sep 30, 2022Low River Levels, Soaring Barge Freight Curb U.S. Grain Exports+1.0%
• Jan 29, 2026Low Water on U.S. Rivers Disrupts Grain Exports, Raising Costs for Ag Supply Chains - Agrolatam-0.3%
• Oct 22, 2026Rising Ocean Freight Raises Costs for U.S. Grain - RFD-TV-1.2%
• Dec 5, 2017Wooden Dams And River Jams Strain US Grain Exports+2.8%
• Jun 30, 2022Argentina trucker strike ends, boosting grains exports+1.0%

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.