SOYBEANS: May Have Taken Out Too Much War Premium; Demand Remains Strong

과거 하락 지정학 이벤트 53건 이후, 대두은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 -0.3% 변동(상승 47%; 중간 50% 범위 -1.9%~+1.2%), 20거래일 동안 +1.0%.

• 2024. 6. 10.US soybean farmers urge policymakers to keep food out of trade war | The Pig Site+0.0%
• 2019. 8. 4.‘Since the end of December we have not sold a single vessel’: Canadian farmers continue to struggle with China’s ban on exports - The Globe and Mail+2.8%
• 2026. 7. 27.Corn and Soybeans Fall on US Weather, Pause in US-Iran Strikes - Bloomberg-6.1%
• 2026. 7. 27.Soybeans and corn fall more than 2% as oil drops, wheat also down | ZAWYA-6.1%
• 2026. 8. 4.CBOT grains, soybeans fall as oil drops on Iran hopes | Stock Market News-0.9%

과거 하락 지정학 이벤트 17건 이후, 대두박은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 -0.1% 변동(상승 47%; 중간 50% 범위 -2.4%~+1.9%), 20거래일 동안 +0.3%.

• 2017. 3. 28.Pork and beans could take brunt of China-U.S. trade dispute-2.4%
• 2018. 2. 16.ASA: Proposed Steel Tariffs Raise Potential for Retaliation Against U.S. Soybeans - American Soybean Association+0.5%
• 2022. 2. 26.GRAIN & PRICES WEEKLY REPORT+4.2%
• 2018. 2. 14.China's most powerful weapon in Trump trade war may backfire+3.5%
• 2018. 2. 15.It's all about the bean+1.9%