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2018. 2. 14.지정학미국

China's most powerful weapon in Trump trade war may backfire

Soybeans are emerging as the most powerful bargaining chip in escalating US-China trade tensions. China takes about a third of the US soybean crop, mainly for feed for its pig herd.

Beijing is reportedly studying restrictions on soybean imports as retaliation for US tariffs on washing machines and solar panels.

중요한 이유

The risk of Chinese restrictions on US soybeans threatens a major export outlet and could widen basis and weigh on futures. Brazil and Argentina would likely capture displaced Chinese demand.

영향 대상대두▼대두박▼

출처 1건
afr.comPeter Martin, Niu Shuping, Alan Bjerga2018. 2. 14.

가격 반응 및 이력

대두▼하락현재까지1d +0.5%5d +2.2%20d +1.7%

과거 하락 지정학 이벤트 53건 이후, 대두은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 -0.3% 변동(상승 47%; 중간 50% 범위 -1.9%~+1.2%), 20거래일 동안 +1.0%.

2017. 1. 20.Boeing and beans on China's blacklist if US trade tensions worsen-1.9%
2026. 9. 24.US farmers push for China commitments on imports as Trump and Xi talk trade-1.9%
2017. 3. 28.Pork and beans could take brunt of China-U.S. trade dispute-3.4%
2019. 5. 31.Target Trump's base if trade spat worsens, Mexican farm lobby says | Farmtario-2.3%
2020. 7. 15.China's yuan firms on weaker dollar but renewed Sino-U.S. worries cap gains | Financial Post+1.6%

대두박▼하락현재까지1d +1.3%5d +3.5%20d +0.8%

과거 하락 지정학 이벤트 17건 이후, 대두박은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 -0.1% 변동(상승 47%; 중간 50% 범위 -2.4%~+1.9%), 20거래일 동안 +0.3%.

2017. 1. 20.Boeing and beans on China's blacklist if US trade tensions worsen-1.7%
2017. 3. 28.Pork and beans could take brunt of China-U.S. trade dispute-2.4%
2022. 3. 30.SOYBEANS: May Have Taken Out Too Much War Premium; Demand Remains Strong — The Hightower Report-0.4%
2020. 6. 4.Traders’ optimism for canola is short lived - Manitoba Co-operator+0.9%
2025. 12. 2.Market Snapshot | Black Sea tensions spur rally in grains - Pro Farmer-2.4%

각 품목 벤치마크의 이벤트 직전 종가 대비 변동. 과거 수치는 같은 유형의 과거 이벤트를 합산한 것으로, 일어난 일을 설명할 뿐 앞으로 일어날 일이 아닙니다. 투자 자문이 아닙니다.

대두 SOY · GP ▸

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대두박 SBM · GP ▸

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