Soybean meal slips to $392/mt and template feed costs keep sliding, but Argentine port strike and heavy fund length in meal add two-way risk

Feed ingredient prices were mostly steady to mixed: corn -0.2% at $217.45/mt, soybeans +1.2%, soybean meal -0.3%, and least-cost formulas are down 0.1-0.5% on the week and 1.0-4.4% over four weeks. Overnight news centres on an indefinite customs-broker strike at Buenos Aires port terminals, Brazil's fast soybean planting, and sharply weaker hogs and live cattle. Energy remains elevated (Brent $114, diesel $4.63/gal), keeping freight and fat costs in focus.

Feed cost

Least-cost template formulas fell again this week, led by Turkey starter (338.7 USD/t, -0.5% 1w, -4.4% 4w), Tilapia grow-out (373.8, -0.5%, -4.1%) and Pullet starter (281.7, -0.4%, -4.3%). Over four weeks the broiler starter is down 4.2% to 297.1. The broiler grower's weekly move of -0.3% is driven mainly by soybean meal (-0.80 USD/t), with corn adding -0.10 and soybean oil about flat. Low-protein, corn-heavy diets such as beef finisher (-0.0%) and sow gestation (-0.0%) barely moved. These are template formulas, not any mill's actual cost.

Grains

Corn is at 43% of its 52-week range, while SRW wheat is at 87% and up 16.6% on the year. Matif and CBOT wheat fell a ninth straight week, with Black Sea FOB offers deeply discounted to EU origin. Rail grain deliveries to Odesa ports dropped 69.8% in October. India's rabi sowing is 46% behind last year after a monsoon deficit, a longer-term wheat concern. US corn export commitments are 28% of USDA's forecast against a 40% five-year average, and weekly sales of 51.3 mil bu are just under the 52.8 needed.

Protein meals and oils

Soybeans rose 1.2% while meal eased 0.3% to $392.1/mt, mid-range at 52%. Brazil's soybean planting is 62% done versus 50% a year ago, which supports South American supply. A strike by customs-broker staff has blocked access to Buenos Aires port terminals, a risk to Argentine meal and oil shipments if prolonged. Palm oil is up 0.8% at $1,154.5, with Malaysian stocks reported at a record 3.51 million tonnes. Fishmeal was last priced at $2,916/mt for September, at the top of its 52-week range. The EU deforestation rules apply from 30 December 2026 to soy and palm oil sold in the EU.

Livestock demand

Lean hogs are at a 52-week low of $62.90/cwt, down 26.2% on the year, and funds are at their most net short in the data. Live cattle fell 1.7% and sit at 21% of their range. Chinese hog prices fell to 9.13 yuan/kg, with farming loss-making for about 13 months. Class III milk jumped 13.9% to $17.30/cwt after a rebound in futures, though reports flag surplus supply. H5N1 was confirmed on a Scottish Borders poultry farm, and a second Arizona screwworm case was reported.

Energy and macro

Brent is $114.03 and diesel $4.63/gal (+90% on the year), which keeps freight, drying and fat-blend costs elevated. Oil has swung on US-Iran talk headlines. Markets are pricing roughly a 73% chance of a December Fed hike, and the broad dollar index is at 93% of its 52-week range. A US congressional committee staff report estimates farmers' diesel spend rose 63% in 2026 planting.

Positioning

As of 27 October, managed money held 168,714 net long contracts in soybean meal (99th percentile) and 193,781 in soybeans (94th), though both were reduced on the week. Corn length was cut by 83,310 to 81,113. Heavily long funds in meal mean liquidation could pull prices lower, but crowded positions can also reverse sharply. Soybean export commitments are 62% of USDA's forecast versus a 51% average, while meal is 29% versus 37%.

Number of the day: 99th percentile

Managed money net long in soybean meal (27 Oct). Funds hold 168,714 net long contracts, so meal is vulnerable to a sharp move if positions are unwound, in either direction for buyers' coverage.

What to watch

• 2026-11-04: EIA weekly petroleum status (ethanol output), relevant to DDGS supply, 10:30 ET
• 2026-11-05: USDA weekly export sales, 08:30 ET: corn needs about 52.8 mil bu/week to hit USDA's forecast
• 2026-11-06: CFTC Commitments of Traders: check whether meal and soybean fund length keeps shrinking
• 2026-11-10: WASDE
• 2026-11-03: Buenos Aires port strike: any resolution or extension affecting Argentine meal and oil loadings