
USDA's November WASDE report cut the corn yield below expectations and raised the soybean yield by less than the market had priced in, lifting grain futures after months of bearish surprises. Wheat rose alongside corn and soybeans despite little fundamental support from the report itself.
Analysts advise watching for a 25-30% retracement of prior losses before resuming stored-grain sales.
A lower US corn yield tightens the feed grain balance and supports corn-based feed costs, while the smaller soybean yield increase limits bearish pressure on soybean meal. Buyers should expect firmer prices but be cautious, as the wheat rally appears borrowed from the row-crop complex.
After 1,051 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.6% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.