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Indian processors face a milk fat shortage even as skimmed milk powder stocks accumulate. The decline of buffalo milk's share from about 60% to about 45% over three decades is driving the change, since cow milk has lower fat content (about 3.5% against 6.5% for buffalo milk).
More cow milk means more solids-not-fat relative to fat, so powder output and stocks rise while fat tightens. Surplus powder is bearish for skimmed milk powder prices, and tight fat supports butter and ghee.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.