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RaboResearch expects combined milk output from the seven leading dairy-exporting regions to fall 0.2% in Q4 2026 and stabilize in the first half of 2027. The EU will temporarily reduce deliveries, the US is expected to expand production by nearly 2%, and New Zealand is preparing record output.
Milk powder is expected to see better price prospects than butter, which faces continued pressure from abundant fat supply.
Lower EU deliveries partly offset US and New Zealand growth, so global export supply tightens only modestly. Stronger international demand for powders and protein ingredients should support NFDM prices, while excess butterfat keeps butter prices under pressure.
agronewscastillayleon.comJosé Ignacio FalcesNov 13, 2026After 136 past neutral report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -0.7% to +0.5%), and -0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
