Global oil tops $100, settles at 2-month high after Houthis strike Saudi tankers and Trump threatens ‘military punishment’ on Iran

After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.

• Apr 2, 2026Oil prices jump and shares drop after Trump threatens more Iran strikes-2.8%
• Jan 14, 2026WTI Nears Three-Month High As Iranian Protests Stoke Global Oil Market Concerns-0.3%
• Jul 23, 2026Oil Jumps 7% To $100 As Houthis Target Saudi Tankers-2.9%
• Aug 30, 2026Oil settles up by more than 2.5% as US and Iran resume military attacks | Reuters+10.8%
• Mar 9, 2018US strikes three Iranian oil tankers after Iran targets US warships+1.0%

After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.

• Apr 2, 2026Oil prices jump and shares drop after Trump threatens more Iran strikes-2.2%
• Jan 14, 2026WTI Nears Three-Month High As Iranian Protests Stoke Global Oil Market Concerns-0.8%
• Jul 23, 2026Oil Jumps 7% To $100 As Houthis Target Saudi Tankers-2.1%
• Aug 30, 2026Oil settles up by more than 2.5% as US and Iran resume military attacks | Reuters+9.6%
• Jun 24, 2019U.S. oil ends higher, but Brent falls as Trump administration announces additional Iran sanctions - MarketWatch+1.6%

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.