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JA Zenchu decided on November 11, 2026, to set Japan's FY2027 staple rice production target at 6.7 million tonnes, 230,000 tonnes below the government's 6.93 million tonne figure. The group said the rice market faces a severe oversupply, with private stocks possibly reaching 2.57 million tonnes by June 2027, and that about 115,000 hectares must shift to feed rice, rice flour, wheat and soybeans.
Retail rice prices are already below cost indicators.
A planned cut in domestic rice output and a shift toward feed rice would ease the glut and support rice prices if the targets are met, while failure to shift acreage would push prices sharply lower. Feed rice demand may also rise as an alternative to imported feed grains.
jacom.or.jpNov 12, 2026After 168 past bullish policy events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.8% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.7% to +2.1%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
