Asian rice prices rose to their highest level in nearly two years on November 5, with Thai 5% broken white rice reaching $499 per tonne as of November 4, the highest since December 2024. Chicago rough rice futures are up more than 80% year to date, as El Niño drought hits crops in India and Southeast Asia.
Tighter Asian rice supply and the USDA forecast of the first global production decline in over a decade point to firmer rice prices, with knock-on food inflation risk across importing countries.
After 179 past bullish weather events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.5%), and +2.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Watch the 39-second version · Asian rice prices hit a near two-year high as El Niño cuts crops