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The ECB signalled it could raise interest rates in 2022, reversing its earlier guidance that rates would stay unchanged this year. The shift came after inflation surprised to the upside.
A hawkish ECB strengthens the euro and weakens the dollar, which tends to support dollar-priced grains and oilseeds while tightening financing conditions for European livestock and feed operators.
reuters.comBalazs KoranyiFeb 3, 2022After 388 past bullish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.4% to +1.1%), and +0.1% over 20.
After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
The ECB's reversal of guidance to allow a 2022 rate hike lifted euro yield expectations and drove EUR/USD higher.
