ECB cuts through bank turmoil to keep rate hike pledge

After 388 past bullish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.4% to +1.1%), and +0.1% over 20.

• Jan 23, 2023Dollar edges lower vs euro on ECB rate hike bets | Reuters+0.2%
• May 23, 2022Euro climbs as ECB eyes rate hikes, dollar slides | Reuters+1.4%
• Sep 1, 2026Euro zone inflation rises above 3%, cementing ECB rate hike bets | Reuters+0.1%
• Feb 3, 2022ECB opens door to 2022 rate hike in policy turnaround+1.2%
• Jan 25, 2022Euro Forecasts Upgraded at Deutsche Bank, says ECB to Hike Rates in December-0.9%

After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.

• Jan 23, 2023Dollar edges lower vs euro on ECB rate hike bets | Reuters-0.4%
• Dec 13, 2023With rate hikes likely done, Fed turns to timing of cuts | Reuters-1.0%
• May 23, 2022Euro climbs as ECB eyes rate hikes, dollar slides | Reuters-0.9%
• Jan 1, 2026Sterling keeps rising after the Bank of England raised the bar on rate cuts+0.3%
• Mar 17, 2021Fed expects to keep its key rate near zero through 2023 | AP News+0.3%