
Mills in Rio Grande do Sul are offering R$1,400 per tonne, but rain has damaged grain quality, leaving only about 150,000 tonnes of milling-grade wheat. Argentina raised its 2026/27 wheat production estimate to 24.3 million tonnes, and Chicago wheat fell more than 2% on November 12 on a stronger dollar and profit-taking.
Quality losses keep Brazilian milling supply tight even as global prices fall, while a larger Argentine crop adds export competition and caps international wheat prices.
After 334 past bearish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.