Brent crude traded near $96 on November 13, 2026, in a range of $95.07 to $97.13, down 2.38% on the week. The IEA expects a market surplus this quarter for the first time since the war began and flagged weaker consumption, while US crude and product inventories rose and refinery runs hit a seasonal record.
Shipping attacks and a tougher US tone on Iran add a risk premium.
A forecast surplus and softer demand pull crude lower, while shipping risk limits the downside. Lower crude and diesel costs reduce the cost of fuel and fertilizer inputs for feed producers.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.