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The November WASDE raised projected 2026/27 global wheat ending stocks by 4.78 million tonnes to 280.82 million tonnes, driven by higher forecasts for Australia, Argentina, Kazakhstan and Ukraine. London feed wheat futures recovered modestly after the collapse of Abu Dhabi peace talks without a Black Sea shipping agreement, with Black Sea commercial shipping down 37% year-on-year in October.
Larger global stocks are bearish, but the stalled Black Sea shipping deal restricts Ukrainian and Russian wheat exports and keeps European prices supported. Net, the shipping risk is currently outweighing the bigger supply picture.
wearehectare.comMatthew TurnerNov 13, 2026After 283 past bullish logistics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.3%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
