Aprosoja MT's field tour in southern Mato Grosso found uneven rainfall and high temperatures slowing soybean development, despite earlier planting in some farms. Alto Garças farmers planted from September 25, but rainfall has been below expectations, with large differences between nearby plots.
Dry, hot conditions in a key Mato Grosso soybean area could trim yield expectations and support soybean and meal prices if they persist. The effect so far is local and limited.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.