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September 1 corn stocks in the Eastern Corn Belt fell sharply from last year, but total end-of-year stocks were 195 million bushels above the average trade estimate. Corn dropped 6 cents on the report, breaking a rising channel in December futures.
The upward revision to 2024 production and larger stocks shift the balance bearish, suggesting limited near-term price support for corn futures.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.