
December WTI crude rose 0.39% while RBOB gasoline fell 1.04%, with crude supported after President Trump said the US doesn't need a deal with Iran. US Central Command reported shooting down two Iranian IRGC drones aimed at a US base in Bahrain, and Verisk Maplecroft counted 36 attacks on commercial ships in the Gulf region in October.
Prolonged disruption to Middle East energy supply keeps crude and diesel costs elevated, raising freight, fertilizer and feed-processing costs for buyers. The IEA's projected surplus and a stronger dollar limit the upside.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.