Europe and Asia are paying much higher natural gas prices due to the Iran war-driven surge, while U.S. buyers pay around $3 per MMBtu. The U.S. has been largely shielded from the global price spike.
A wide gap between US and global gas prices supports US nitrogen fertilizer and ammonia competitiveness, while raising European and Asian input costs that feed through to feed prices.
After 162 past geopolitics events, Natural Gas moved a median +2.2% over 5 sessions (61% higher; middle half -2.0% to +7.5%), and +4.1% over 20.
After 11 past neutral geopolitics events, Urea moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (64% higher; middle half -1.0% to +5.9%), and +7.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.