
Brent January futures traded near $95.85 and WTI December near $88.28, both down about 2.5% to 2.8% on the week. The IEA reported global oil supply rose 2.3 million barrels per day in October, and it forecast a 2.7 million barrel per day decline in 2026 demand.
A weaker IEA demand outlook and rising Gulf exports add bearish pressure, though Strait of Hormuz risk still supports prices. Lower crude reduces diesel and freight costs over time for feed supply chains.
After 312 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.7% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -5.4% to +2.3%), and -1.7% over 20.
After 565 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -5.9% to +3.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.