USDA's November report projects Argentina's record sunflower crop at 7.8 million tonnes for 2026/27, fourth among world producers behind Russia, Ukraine and the EU. Argentine soybean area and volume are falling over the same period.
A record sunflower harvest expands supply of sunflower meal and oil, pressuring those prices. A smaller soybean crop tightens soybean supply and supports soybean prices.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.