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Talks between Ukraine and Russia in Abu Dhabi have not produced a new safe-shipping agreement for the Black Sea, and the wheat market has reacted little so far. Traders are focused on Argentine wheat offered at $237–243/ton FOB, about $30/ton below West European wheat, ahead of Algeria's tender for roughly 700,000 tons.
The December Euronext wheat contract fell 1.6% on November 12 to €232.50/ton after a four-day rally.
Cheaper Argentine supply and a partial rerouting of Russian and Ukrainian wheat through the Baltic and Romania limit the price impact of the Black Sea shipping stalemate. European wheat becomes less competitive in export markets, which keeps pressure on wheat prices.
ukragroconsult.comNov 13, 2026After 375 past bearish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.1%), and -0.1% over 20.
After 82 past bearish trade events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.8% to +1.9%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
