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The USDA's November report cut its 2026/27 Russian wheat export forecast by 1 million tonnes to 39 million, while leaving the crop at 88 million tonnes. It raised Russian ending stocks to 20.09 million tonnes and cut Ukrainian wheat exports by 1 million tonnes to 11.5 million, citing continued Black Sea shipping constraints.
Lower Russian and Ukrainian exports reduce supply available to importers, which supports wheat prices. The offset is a higher USDA global production estimate and larger Russian stocks, which limits the price gain.
agroexpert.pressBogdan TchaikovskyNov 12, 2026After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 180 past bullish report events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.7%), and -0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
