A cold front brought scattered showers to the Midwest, with colder air and lake-effect showers expected into the weekend. Forecasts call for a better rainfall outlook in central Brazil that still needs to verify, and continued active weather in Argentina.
Warm, dry conditions are expected for the Northern Plains, while drought concerns persist in the Delta.
Improved rain in central Brazil and Argentina would ease planting and early-crop stress for soybeans and corn, which can weigh on South American-linked prices. Dry Delta conditions and warm weather in the U.S. are a modest concern for winter wheat and spring planting.
After 363 past bearish weather events, Soybeans moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.1%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 357 past bearish weather events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 224 past neutral weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.