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Euro zone stocks rose sharply on Monday after Emmanuel Macron, the market-favoured candidate, won the first round of the French presidential election. The euro jumped about 1.3 percent to $1.0873, briefly reaching $1.0940, and the yen weakened against it.
A reduced risk of a French exit from the EU strengthens the euro against the dollar, which matters for dollar-priced grain and oilseed import costs in Europe. The effect on feed commodity prices themselves is limited.
reuters.comApr 24, 2017After 18 past bullish geopolitics events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (83% higher; middle half +0.9% to +2.0%), and +2.0% over 20.
After 33 past bearish geopolitics events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -1.5% to +0.2%), and -0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Macron's first-round win cut political-risk premia, and the euro jumped about 1.3% to $1.0873, matching the size of the move on the day.
