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Brazil's urea imports fell 23% and ammonium sulfate imports fell 36% over August to October. October urea arrivals rose to 840,000 tonnes from 480,000 in September, still 14% below a year earlier.
About 40% of second-crop (safrinha) fertilizer purchases remain open, and the falling dollar corn price has worsened the corn-to-fertilizer exchange ratio.
Lower nitrogen imports ahead of the safrinha corn planting window tighten fertilizer supply and can cut yield potential. A weaker corn price against fertilizer costs also reduces farmer buying power, which adds to the uncertainty.
agrolink.com.brLeonardo GottemsNov 12, 2026After 176 past bullish trade events, Urea moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.4%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 480 past neutral trade events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
