
The euro traded with mild gains near 1.1060 in early European trade on Friday, with the pair holding below its 100-day SMA. ECB policymaker Philip Lane said rate decisions will depend on whether the recent fuel price surge spreads to wages and other prices.
Most economists polled by Reuters expect a final ECB deposit rate hike next month.
Diverging rate expectations between the ECB and Fed are supporting the dollar, which tends to weigh on dollar-denominated commodity prices and make US grain and oilseed exports less competitive abroad.
After 129 past neutral macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -0.5% to +0.5%), and +0.1% over 20.
After 359 past neutral macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -0.4% to +0.4%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.