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Brent has fallen about 18% this month and settled in the low $90s, near a two-month low, after the US midterm elections raised hopes of a diplomatic route with Iran. OPEC+ output is recovering strongly, with Saudi Arabia and Iraq reporting sharp October production gains.
Talks between Washington and Tehran remain deadlocked, and attacks on tankers and energy infrastructure continue.
Recovering Gulf supply and a possible return to surplus weigh on crude and diesel prices, but a breakdown in diplomacy or renewed attacks on shipping could cause a sharp reversal. Higher energy costs feed through to feed transport, fertilizer and processing costs.
worldports.orgPriya Anika RajanNov 13, 2026After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
