
Kernel, one of Ukraine's largest sunflower oil producers, has shut all its crushing plants and suspended sunseed purchases after Russian drone attacks damaged production buildings and storage tanks. Several other oilseed crushing facilities in central and western Ukrainian regions have also been hit and some have halted operations.
As of mid-November, 48% oil content sunseed was priced at $290-310/t excluding VAT delivered to crushers.
Reduced crushing capacity cuts demand for sunflower seed and therefore sunflower meal output, while weaker palm oil prices are shifting Indian demand away from sunflower oil. Expect further downward pressure on Ukrainian sunseed and sunflower meal prices.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 12 past bearish geopolitics events, Palm Oil moved a median -4.5% over 5 sessions (17% higher; middle half -5.9% to -2.3%), and -6.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.