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The USDA's November forecast puts Ukrainian wheat exports at 11.5 million tonnes, 1 million tonnes below the previous estimate, even though its Ukrainian wheat crop forecast rose 0.5 million tonnes to 26.5 million tonnes. Global wheat production was raised 5.12 million tonnes to 827.51 million tonnes, while the global export forecast was cut to 208.66 million tonnes, with Russia and Ukraine each reduced by 1 million tonnes.
Lower Black Sea export flows and rising Ukrainian stocks (ending stocks up 1.2 million tonnes to 7.3 million) point to a bearish-leaning balance for feed wheat, though higher global output and stocks limit upside for wheat prices.
agroreview.comКоваленко СергійNov 12, 2026After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 138 past bearish report events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.9% to +2.4%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
