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ING's FX outlook expects the Brazilian real to recover over coming quarters, helped by Lula's fiscal discipline signals. It flags concern that Banxico's dovish stance is weakening the Mexican peso.
A firmer real would lower Brazilian soymeal and corn export costs in dollar terms, while a weaker peso raises the cost of imported feed for Mexican buyers.
think.ing.comChris Turner, Ewa MantheyNov 12, 2026After 213 past bearish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.5% to +0.9%), and +0.2% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
