
Australian wheat growers were told prices could rise by up to 50% as the Russia-Ukraine conflict restricts supply to Middle Eastern and North African buyers. Ukrainian shipping has been cancelled and buyers such as Egypt and Saudi Arabia may switch to Australian supply.
Global wheat prices had already risen about 20% since the start of the year.
Lost Black Sea shipments push import demand toward Australia and other exporters, lifting wheat export prices. Higher wheat prices would raise feed grain costs for buyers.
After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.