
Portland, Geelong and Adelaide grain prices are all around the 22nd percentile of their historical ranges. Another large southern Australian harvest is arriving with substantial grain still needing buyers.
Large harvest volumes that are not yet sold put pressure on Australian wheat prices and export basis. Competition from Russian supplies entering the same markets could further weigh on Australian export prices.
After 375 past bearish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.1%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.