
The USDA's November report raised its global 2026/27 wheat production forecast by 5.1 million tonnes to 827.5 million, with gains in Argentina, Australia, Kazakhstan and Ukraine, while EU estimates were unchanged. The agency cut its world corn production forecast by 2 million tonnes to 1,291.5 million.
A larger world wheat supply with exports slightly lower points to ample wheat for feed use and pressure on prices, while the smaller corn crop tightens corn supply modestly.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.