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India announced a rabi season fertiliser subsidy increase that is expected to lift DAP and complex fertiliser sales. October offtake was below demand due to DAP availability problems, high complex fertiliser prices and lower rabi sowing.
Stronger Indian DAP demand after the subsidy could tighten global phosphate supply, supporting phosphate fertilizer prices and raising input costs for crops used in feed.
After 151 past bullish policy events, DAP moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.9%), and +1.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.