USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service cut Arkansas's November corn yield estimate by 3 bushels per acre to 190 and its soybean estimate by 3 bushels to 56. NASS reported lower pod counts than the previous year in six of 11 major soybean states.
Local agronomists say the Arkansas soybean estimate looks optimistic.
A state-level downward revision adds a small amount of supply tightness to corn and soybeans, though Arkansas is a minor part of national output. The national effect is limited, and the question of whether the soybean estimate is too high could lead to later revisions.
After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.