
Trump said on social media that the US did not need a deal with Iran and had 'got their Strait', sending oil prices around flat to slightly higher. Brent traded near $93.29 and WTI near $86.05, with WTI down about 16% in November as fighting concerns eased earlier in the week.
Renewed uncertainty over a US-Iran settlement keeps a risk premium in crude, which feeds through to diesel and freight costs for grain and feed logistics.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.