
The Department of Energy introduced an Emissions Value Request process so producers can claim the 45Z clean fuel credit for pathways missing from its emissions rate tables. EPA also proposed reallocating 100% of the RFS volumes waived through 29 Small Refinery Exemptions for 2025, split between 2026 and 2027 or placed entirely in 2027.
Reallocated RFS volumes and expanded 45Z eligibility support biofuel feedstock demand, which is supportive for ethanol output and corn grind. The effect on prices depends on the final EPA volumes and on how many pathways qualify.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 318 past bullish policy events, Corn moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.