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War-risk insurance for ships entering Russian Black Sea ports has risen to about 10% of a vessel's value, versus 0.25-0.35% before 2022. Lloyd's treats the area as dangerous, so most ships cannot obtain standard cover, and the state-backed Russian National Compensation Pool can insure only about 50-70 vessels at a time.
Adding roughly $67 per tonne to freight makes Russian grain less competitive on world markets, and analysts say exports will stay constrained until insurance falls to around 2%, which supports wheat and corn prices.
graintrade.com.uaNov 12, 2026After 283 past bullish logistics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.3%), and -0.1% over 20.
After 285 past bullish logistics events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.5%), and +0.8% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
