
Brent fell 1.11% to $91.72 and WTI dropped 0.97% to $85.71 on Thursday as investors hoped for peace talks on the Middle East conflict and Russia-Ukraine war. Russia and Ukraine reached a prisoner exchange agreement in Abu Dhabi talks, while OPEC+ output and US inventories rose.
Lower crude on peace hopes and rising supply reduces energy costs and biofuel feedstock support, which can soften vegetable oil and ethanol-linked feed prices.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.