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The Brazilian real closed at R$5.65 per dollar, its weakest level since January 2022, as fiscal risk perceptions and rising US Treasury yields pressured local assets. Markets priced in a 125-basis-point Selic hike for the year, and the finance minister blamed communication issues.
A sharp currency depreciation raises the real-denominated cost of dollar-priced feed imports and makes Brazilian exporters more competitive in dollar markets, which can shift soybean and corn export flows.
valorinternational.globo.comArthur Cagliari, Gabriel Roca, Matheus Prado, Victor RezendeJul 2, 2024After 301 past bullish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
